Planting the SEED: China Watch SFD, BG, SYT, MON, ADM, SEED, TSN - TheStreet TV
Monsanto is huge in the genetically engineered seed market. What Monsanto can do with technology just can't be done with nature. Check out this video from TheStreet.com TV to learn more about a hot company that is on our radar as a growth play going into the future. Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) is the fist company that has been granted approval from the Chinese Government to sell their seeds in China. So, what Monsanto is to the US farmer COULD be what Origin becomes to the Chinese farmer, the second larges corn market in the world. If they report a good quarter, after sales start, then you're looking at a great catalyst for this stock to move higher.
Showing posts with label stock market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Don't Forget to Take Profits
We would be remiss if we didn't remind you to take profits. Now, we could just remind you that you need to be listening to our Lunch @ the Markets Segments (You can listen to them here: http://linkth.at/vl) and leave you in the dark, but we'll let you in on our market discipline (not that we are the only one's in this school of thought).
When the markets roar, no doubt you will make money if you're long good stocks. I guess you could lose money if you owned $RIMM (Research in Motion) or $MYGN (if you bought it @ $30 because you listed to us late after we told you to buy it under $25). But, for most people, especially if you've been in the market since March, or even April, or May, or June, and especially July (because so much of it was spent in the red). Then you have made money. Please, don't let all that ride. Do not be a pig.
When we were in California, we had one of the advisers we work with come back and tell us a story about a client of theirs who had refused to sell $GE @ $17 and $WFC @ $31. When confronted with the brutal facts that $GE fell $3/share and $WFC fell $4/share; they said that the companies were good solid companies and they'll come back. That's true, the probably will, and in 5 years those prices might sound low. But that is not the case right now, and the bottom line is. If you're up big, even if you like the stock, you have to sell when you're up...especially if you're up big. Why not take some off the top and then, if you like it so much, buy it back after it pulls back. Nearly every stock pulls back. People didn't think Goldman Sachs ($GS) would pull back...and now you can pick it up for $171.90! That's down $20/share from the 52-week high!
Look, the bottom line: "You cannot own stocks forever." That's one of our favorite quotes from the advisor we talked with in CA. Can you imagine if you bought $GE @ $8 in the early 1990s and watch it go up over $40/share...and then DIDN'T sell it and watched it fall all the way back down to $8!?!? Don't put yourself on that type of roller coaster, and don't own stocks forever. Very few companies should be owned forever. When you have big gains...take some off at the top, or on the way up (because know one knows exactly where the top...or the bottom is for that matter). You'll have plenty of cash on hand for when the market has a rainy day and dumps a stock you like big time. That will be your cue to come in and buy. We've had a lot of fun with $STJ down 10% in one day, $TRLG down 20% in one day. You'll have to go listen to our Lunch @ the Market Segments (http://linkth.at/vl) for all our research. We work hard, but we're not going to make it that easy for you every time. :-)
We'll tell you the bottom line, because that's the way we like to shoot it, nice and straight: ALWAYS keep cash in your portfolio for rainy days, try to avoid ever buying on an up day, and please don't sell on a down day. Instead, when markets are up big...look for things you can sell. When they're down big, look for things to buy. To avoid being emotional, keep a shopping list around for these days and keep sell price targets. Heck, go ahead and enter in the limit orders to sell ahead of time so that you take the emotions out. Know what you own, and always do your homework!
When the markets roar, no doubt you will make money if you're long good stocks. I guess you could lose money if you owned $RIMM (Research in Motion) or $MYGN (if you bought it @ $30 because you listed to us late after we told you to buy it under $25). But, for most people, especially if you've been in the market since March, or even April, or May, or June, and especially July (because so much of it was spent in the red). Then you have made money. Please, don't let all that ride. Do not be a pig.
When we were in California, we had one of the advisers we work with come back and tell us a story about a client of theirs who had refused to sell $GE @ $17 and $WFC @ $31. When confronted with the brutal facts that $GE fell $3/share and $WFC fell $4/share; they said that the companies were good solid companies and they'll come back. That's true, the probably will, and in 5 years those prices might sound low. But that is not the case right now, and the bottom line is. If you're up big, even if you like the stock, you have to sell when you're up...especially if you're up big. Why not take some off the top and then, if you like it so much, buy it back after it pulls back. Nearly every stock pulls back. People didn't think Goldman Sachs ($GS) would pull back...and now you can pick it up for $171.90! That's down $20/share from the 52-week high!
Look, the bottom line: "You cannot own stocks forever." That's one of our favorite quotes from the advisor we talked with in CA. Can you imagine if you bought $GE @ $8 in the early 1990s and watch it go up over $40/share...and then DIDN'T sell it and watched it fall all the way back down to $8!?!? Don't put yourself on that type of roller coaster, and don't own stocks forever. Very few companies should be owned forever. When you have big gains...take some off at the top, or on the way up (because know one knows exactly where the top...or the bottom is for that matter). You'll have plenty of cash on hand for when the market has a rainy day and dumps a stock you like big time. That will be your cue to come in and buy. We've had a lot of fun with $STJ down 10% in one day, $TRLG down 20% in one day. You'll have to go listen to our Lunch @ the Market Segments (http://linkth.at/vl) for all our research. We work hard, but we're not going to make it that easy for you every time. :-)
We'll tell you the bottom line, because that's the way we like to shoot it, nice and straight: ALWAYS keep cash in your portfolio for rainy days, try to avoid ever buying on an up day, and please don't sell on a down day. Instead, when markets are up big...look for things you can sell. When they're down big, look for things to buy. To avoid being emotional, keep a shopping list around for these days and keep sell price targets. Heck, go ahead and enter in the limit orders to sell ahead of time so that you take the emotions out. Know what you own, and always do your homework!
Going According To Plan
So far, everything has gone according to our plan that we've had for the last 6 months. If you've had a chance to catch our Taking the Market Temperature and Lunch @ the Market Segments (listen to all the posts here: http://tweetmic.com/p/ox22alezwbd), then you know we have called this market almost step by step. We were a little thrown off when the DOW jumped above 10,000 on the 2nd day of earnings and then failed twice at 10,000. Our goal was the 2nd week of November for the DOW to find itself above 10,000...and on Monday, we should open there. Defending it may have become a tougher job than we first thought though.
Unemployment has not been a surprise. I know Meredith Whitney was on Squawk Box months ago and said 12-13% was not out of the question. We'll take 12%, but I don't know that we'll get all the way to 13%. Honestly, it's a relief that we've printed over 10% unemployment. Lets face it, everyone has thought we were there at 10% for a long time now...we were just all waiting to see the number printed. I think the fact that the market not only held it's gains in the face of that number, but we actually finished in the green...means that it really was already priced in.
We have heard MASSIVE amounts of Bullishness from CEOs like Cisco. People have called a bottom in their industries. The banks and tech have pulled back, leaving more room to run above 10,000 in the DOW. Frankly, owning Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs here makes a ton more sense than owning them at much higher levels before earnings season. We have heard over and over that normalized earnings are a joke for the banks, that real estate is horrible, no good, and very bad. I hate to point out...but the bank reserves are massive and the bank failures we're seeing now need to happen to weed out unhealthy banks. Tell me what happens to bank stocks when they start talking about net interest margins and loan growth (normalized earnings)? They are going to soar. You just wait until Jamie Dimon puts his dividend back and Wells Fargo and Bank of America return the TARP (which they will, probably in a move that will surprise everyone but those with insider information; which you will probably see play out in options). Honestly, does any one have the Vegas Line on Bank of America or Citigroup going under? For gosh sakes, AIG is profitable and look at The Hartford and Travelers...they are soaring. Don't confuse my realistic attitude with outright exuberance or that I'm sounding the all clear or that things are great. But all the negativity is a bit much. As I think about it though, all the negativity is why we've been able to keep this rally alive. As the Bears finally realize that the world will not end, and that people can make money in stocks because truly great companies will find a way to be profitable. We need someone to sell my stock to after we make all that money.
That may be the moral of my story. The terrible companies, the really bad ones that no one should own...most of them already trade at that price and you should be able to pick them out because they're low single digit stocks, or worse, less than a single dollar.
Unemployment has not been a surprise. I know Meredith Whitney was on Squawk Box months ago and said 12-13% was not out of the question. We'll take 12%, but I don't know that we'll get all the way to 13%. Honestly, it's a relief that we've printed over 10% unemployment. Lets face it, everyone has thought we were there at 10% for a long time now...we were just all waiting to see the number printed. I think the fact that the market not only held it's gains in the face of that number, but we actually finished in the green...means that it really was already priced in.
We have heard MASSIVE amounts of Bullishness from CEOs like Cisco. People have called a bottom in their industries. The banks and tech have pulled back, leaving more room to run above 10,000 in the DOW. Frankly, owning Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs here makes a ton more sense than owning them at much higher levels before earnings season. We have heard over and over that normalized earnings are a joke for the banks, that real estate is horrible, no good, and very bad. I hate to point out...but the bank reserves are massive and the bank failures we're seeing now need to happen to weed out unhealthy banks. Tell me what happens to bank stocks when they start talking about net interest margins and loan growth (normalized earnings)? They are going to soar. You just wait until Jamie Dimon puts his dividend back and Wells Fargo and Bank of America return the TARP (which they will, probably in a move that will surprise everyone but those with insider information; which you will probably see play out in options). Honestly, does any one have the Vegas Line on Bank of America or Citigroup going under? For gosh sakes, AIG is profitable and look at The Hartford and Travelers...they are soaring. Don't confuse my realistic attitude with outright exuberance or that I'm sounding the all clear or that things are great. But all the negativity is a bit much. As I think about it though, all the negativity is why we've been able to keep this rally alive. As the Bears finally realize that the world will not end, and that people can make money in stocks because truly great companies will find a way to be profitable. We need someone to sell my stock to after we make all that money.
That may be the moral of my story. The terrible companies, the really bad ones that no one should own...most of them already trade at that price and you should be able to pick them out because they're low single digit stocks, or worse, less than a single dollar.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)